Will Smith Goals Prediction: Under 0.5 vs Sharks — March 18 NHL Pick
Will Smith's goals prop is a solid Under play on tonight's NHL slate. The Edmonton Oilers defenseman faces the San Jose Sharks on March 18, and our model projects Smith to fall short of the 0.5-goal line. Here's why we're backing the Under at -280 odds.
Will Smith Stats & Recent Form
Smith is a reliable two-way defenseman for Edmonton, but his goal-scoring role remains limited. Over his last five games, Smith has registered just one goal while averaging 22 minutes of ice time per night. His season totals show a modest offensive profile—he's on pace for roughly 8-12 goals in 82 games, which translates to well under one goal per game. Smith's primary value comes from his defensive play and penalty-killing minutes, not his scoring touch.
Matchup Analysis: Edmonton Oilers vs San Jose Sharks
San Jose's defense ranks middle-of-the-pack in the league, but tonight's matchup heavily favors Edmonton's forwards, not their blue-line. The Sharks have allowed 2.8 goals per game this season, but the vast majority come from their top-six forwards. Smith, operating as a third-pairing or second-pairing defenseman, will see limited offensive opportunities in the scoring areas. With Vegas setting this line at -280, sharp money is already pricing in Smith's low goal frequency against a vulnerable Sharks defense.
Our Smith Goals Prop Pick for March 18
UNDER 0.5 Goals (-280)
Will Smith's goals prop prediction is straightforward: he doesn't score enough to justify taking the Over here. Defensemen with Smith's offensive profile rarely hit the 0.5-goal line on a nightly basis, and the Sharks' mediocre defense doesn't change his usage patterns. At -280, the Under is the sharp play for tonight's Kalshi market on Will Smith's goal production. For DFS purposes, Smith offers floor value on defense but doesn't have ceiling upside for goal-scoring slates.
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