Tramon Mark Points Prediction: Over 14.5 vs NC State Tonight (March 18)
Tramon Mark's points prop is a strong play on tonight's NCAA tournament matchup. The Texas Longhorns guard faces NC State on March 18, and our model projects Mark to clear his 14.5-point line with confidence. Here's why we're backing the Over.
Tramon Mark Stats & Recent Form
Mark has been one of Texas's most consistent scorers down the stretch, averaging 16.2 points per game over his last five contests. The senior guard has eclipsed 14.5 points in four of his last five outings, showing reliable offensive production when it matters most. His shot selection and volume have remained steady in tournament play, and he's hitting 38% from three-point range in March games. Mark's role as a primary perimeter scorer for the Longhorns makes him a fixture in the scoring column night after night.
Matchup Analysis: Texas vs NC State
NC State ranks 87th in defensive efficiency and has struggled to contain opposing guards throughout the season. The Wolfpack's perimeter defense is particularly vulnerable, allowing 42% three-point shooting to ranked opponents in recent weeks. Texas enters as a higher seed with a significant pace advantage, which should create more offensive opportunities for Mark. Given the tournament setting and Texas's need to assert early control, Mark should see elevated usage rates.
Our Mark Points Prop Pick for March 18
We're backing the Over 14.5 points on Tramon Mark tonight. His consistency in this range, combined with a NC State defense that ranks outside the top 50, creates a favorable spot. Mark's 16+ point average over recent games and his tournament pedigree make this a lean at -125 odds.
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