Tommy Novak Assists Prediction: Under 0.5 vs Penguins — March 18 NHL Pick
Tommy Novak's assists prop presents a sharp Under opportunity on Wednesday night. The Carolina Hurricanes face the Pittsburgh Penguins on March 18, and Novak's assist line sits at 0.5—a number that heavily favors backing the Under at -455 odds. Here's why this prop aligns with both recent trends and matchup dynamics.
Tommy Novak Stats & Recent Form
Novak has been a limited playmaker for Carolina this season, averaging fewer than 0.4 assists per game over his last 10 contests. The 25-year-old winger operates primarily as a scorer rather than a distributor, and his assist opportunities have dried up in recent weeks as his ice time has fluctuated. When Novak does get on the scoresheet, it's usually via goals, not setups—a trend that makes this Under a natural fit.
Matchup Analysis: Carolina vs Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh's defense has been respectable this season, ranking middle-of-the-pack in limiting secondary scoring chances. The Penguins' defensive structure doesn't typically create free-flowing opportunities for opposing wingers to rack up assists. Carolina will likely prioritize possession, but Novak's limited role in the playmaking duties—especially in a structured road game—makes hitting 1+ assist unlikely. The over odds at +310 reflect the sharp money's belief that Novak simply isn't positioned to record an assist.
Our Novak Assists Prop Pick for March 18
Under 0.5 Assists (-455) is the play. Novak's recent assist pace, his secondary role in Carolina's offense, and the matchup dynamics all point away from him recording a helper. The -455 odds are steep but justified—this is a high-confidence situation where the sharps are already locked in on the Under.
Where to Bet Tommy Novak Props Tonight
Ready to act on this pick? Here are your best options:
- DFS Play: Tommy Novak is a strong play on Chalkboard — enter promo code ONTAP for a deposit bonus.
- Sportsbook: Grab the line at Caesars Sportsbook. First Bet Matched Up to $250 in Bonus Bets.
- Prediction Markets: Trade this Tommy Novak prop on Kalshi — the only federally regulated prediction market in the US. No sportsbook needed — use promo code ONTAP.
Always bet responsibly. Must be 18+.