Paul McNeil Jr. Points Prediction: Under 14.5 vs NC State | March 18 NCAAB Pick
Paul McNeil Jr.'s points prop is a solid contrarian play on Wednesday's NCAA Tournament matchup. The Texas Longhorns guard takes on NC State in a tournament game on March 18, and our model projects McNeil to fall short of his 14.5-point line. Here's why we're backing the Under.
Paul McNeil Jr. Stats & Recent Form
McNeil Jr. has been an inconsistent scorer for Texas down the stretch, averaging just 11.8 points per game over his last five contests. The 6'3" guard has struggled with shot selection in high-pressure situations, hitting below 40% from the field in three of his last four games. While he's capable of explosive scoring nights, his baseline performance trends well below this 14.5-point threshold, especially against tournament-caliber defenses.
Matchup Analysis: Texas vs NC State
NC State's defense ranks in the top 50 nationally in points allowed per possession, with particular strength in perimeter containment. The Wolfpack scheme forces guards to beat them with efficiency rather than volume, a challenge McNeil Jr. hasn't consistently answered this season. Tournament intensity and NC State's disciplined defensive approach should suppress McNeil's scoring opportunities.
Our McNeil Jr. Points Prop Pick for March 18
UNDER 14.5 Points — McNeil Jr.'s recent inconsistency and NC State's suffocating perimeter defense make this a lean toward the Under. The +100 odds on the Over offer minimal juice, signaling sharp money is on the Under side. We project McNeil to score 11-13 points in a competitive tournament environment, making this Paul McNeil Jr. prop prediction a high-confidence play. The Under 14.5 offers solid value for Kalshi prediction market traders and DFS players looking to fade scoring props in tournament games.
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