Kawhi Leonard Threes Prediction: Under 2.5 vs Pelicans — March 20 NBA Pick
Kawhi Leonard's three-point prop is a sharp Under bet on March 20 when the Los Angeles Clippers host the New Orleans Pelicans. The star wing has been selective from deep in recent weeks, and this matchup offers excellent conditions to fade the Over at 2.5 threes. Here's why our model backs the Under.
Kawhi Leonard Stats & Recent Form
Over his last five games, Kawhi has averaged 2.2 three-pointers made on solid efficiency, but the volume tells the story: he's been taking fewer attempts from beyond the arc as the Clippers lean into isolation ball and mid-range looks. In March, Leonard is averaging just 2.8 threes per game across 5.1 attempts—well below his season average. His shot selection has skewed more toward two-point looks, reflecting both game flow and the team's offensive scheme adjustments down the stretch.
Matchup Analysis: Clippers vs Pelicans
New Orleans ranks 12th in three-point defense (35.2% allowed), which actually plays into a slower, more methodical Clippers offense. With the Pelicans' switching and physical perimeter defense, expect the Clippers to attack inside-out rather than force three-point volume. The pace of this matchup typically favors fewer three-point attempts overall, and Kawhi's role in that context skews toward efficiency over volume.
Our Leonard Threes Prop Pick for March 20
We're backing the Under 2.5 threes at -154 odds. Kawhi Leonard has shown a clear trend away from deep volume in March, and the Clippers' game plan against New Orleans' defense should prioritize penetration and mid-range looks over three-point hunting. At this line, the Under offers strong value for a player who's averaged just 2.2 made threes over his last five games.
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