John Collins Points Prediction: Under 13.5 vs Clippers — March 19 NBA Pick
John Collins' points prop is a prime Under play on Thursday's NBA slate. The New Orleans Pelicans travel to Los Angeles to face the Clippers on March 19, and our model projects Collins to fall short of his 13.5-point line. Here's why we're backing the Under.
John Collins Stats & Recent Form
Collins has been inconsistent for the Pelicans this season, averaging 11.2 points per game over his last five contests. The veteran frontcourt player has struggled with scoring efficiency and bench usage, particularly in games where the Pelicans deploy their starting lineup at full strength. Collins' scoring has dipped significantly when facing elite defensive teams, and his minutes have fluctuated between 18-24 per night. He's failed to reach 13.5 points in three of his last five games, showing a clear downward trend in offensive output.
Matchup Analysis: Pelicans vs Clippers
Los Angeles ranks in the top 10 defensively and excels at limiting power forwards in the paint, holding opponents to 12.1 points per game at the four-spot. The Clippers' depth on the wing and interior defense will make it difficult for Collins to find easy scoring opportunities. New Orleans will likely rely heavily on their starting backcourt against LA's perimeter-heavy attack, potentially limiting Collins' involvement in the offensive flow.
Our Collins Points Prop Pick for March 19
We're backing the Under 13.5 Points at -114 odds. Collins has shown a pattern of underperformance against strong defensive squads, and the Clippers' system is specifically built to crowd the paint and force role players into difficult shots. With his recent scoring struggles and limited usage in high-leverage matchups, expect Collins to land in the 10-12 point range. This is a sharp play for Kalshi John Collins prop prediction bettors and DFS players looking to fade the total.
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