John Collins Points Prediction: Under 13.5 vs Clippers — March 19 NBA Pick
John Collins' points prop sits at 13.5 in tonight's New Orleans Pelicans vs Los Angeles Clippers matchup on March 19. The veteran forward has been a bench contributor for New Orleans this season, and our model projects him to stay Under this total. Here's why the case for the Under is compelling.
John Collins Stats & Recent Form
Collins has averaged just 12.1 points per game over his last five outings, struggling to find consistent offensive rhythm off the Pelicans bench. His usage rate has dipped to 18.2% during this stretch, well below the 20%+ he was posting earlier in the season. The forward is coming off a three-game span where he failed to reach 12 points in two contests, signaling a clear downward trend in scoring production.
Matchup Analysis: New Orleans vs Los Angeles
The Clippers rank 8th defensively in points allowed per game and have been especially stingy against non-star frontcourt players. Los Angeles' switching scheme and length on the perimeter will limit Collins' space to operate, and his inability to create his own shot makes him reliant on easy buckets in transition or spot-up opportunities. With the Pelicans likely to control pace against a talented Clippers roster, Collins won't have as many fast-break chances to pad scoring.
Our Collins Points Prop Pick for March 19
We're backing the Under 13.5 points for John Collins tonight. His recent scoring average sits comfortably below this line, and the Clippers' elite perimeter defense will further restrict his offensive touches. At -114 odds, this represents solid value given Collins' bench role and limited usage in the New Orleans offense.
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