Jaxon Kohler Props Today vs North Dakota State | March 19, 2026
Jaxon Kohler enters Thursday's NCAA Tournament matchup against North Dakota State as one of Michigan State's most reliable two-way contributors. The Spartans' versatile forward has been instrumental in their tournament push, combining solid scoring with consistent rebounding efforts. Against a North Dakota State squad that projects as a lower-seed opponent, Kohler figures to see significant minutes and maintain his role in the Spartans' offensive and defensive schemes. Today's props offer distinct value opportunities based on recent performance trends and the specific matchup dynamics.
Points Prop: 13.5 | Over -102 / Under -132
Kohler has averaged 13.2 points per game over Michigan State's last eight contests, putting this line directly in his wheelhouse. However, the under carries superior odds at -132, reflecting modest recent scoring variance. Against North Dakota State's defensive approach, which ranks outside the top 100 nationally in adjusted efficiency, Kohler should find reasonable offensive opportunities in pick-and-roll situations and spot-up looks from three.
The key consideration is Kohler's role distribution. Michigan State may prioritize getting easier looks to high-percentage scorers if they establish an early lead, potentially limiting Kohler's volume. His 13.5 line sits right at his season median, making this a near coin-flip proposition without significant edge in either direction.
Recommendation: UNDER 13.5
Rebounds Prop: 8.5 | Over -132 / Under 100
This is Kohler's strongest prop opportunity today. The forward has pulled down 8.7 boards per game over his last ten outings, consistently beating this exact line. His 6-foot-10 frame and physical rebounding instincts make him a natural fit for crashing the glass, and North Dakota State's frontcourt lacks the depth to consistently challenge Michigan State on the boards.
Kohler's rebounding workload typically increases in tournament play when teams emphasize second-chance prevention and defensive rebounding intensity. The -132 juice on the over reflects his recent reliability in this category. Expect Kohler to see 30-plus minutes in a game where Michigan State should control pace and possess significant rebounding advantages throughout.
Recommendation: OVER 8.5
Best Bet Today
Jaxon Kohler Over 8.5 Rebounds (-132) represents the most compelling value on today's slate. Kohler's recent rebounding consistency, combined with a significant talent differential between Michigan State and North Dakota State in the frontcourt, creates a high-probability scenario where he eclipses this total. His 8.7 average over the last ten games, paired with tournament-intensity rebounding effort, makes this the safest path to a winning ticket. The over's minus juice is justified but still represents reasonable value given Kohler's reliability in this specific statistical category.