DeMar DeRozan Assists Prediction: Under 5.5 vs Kings — March 24 NBA Prop Pick
DeMar DeRozan's assists prop is a sharp under play on tonight's NBA slate. The Charlotte Hornets face the Sacramento Kings on March 24, and our model projects DeRozan to fall short of his 5.5-assist line. Here's why we're backing the Under.
DeMar DeRozan Stats & Recent Form
DeRozan has averaged 4.2 assists over his last five games, well below his season average of 5.1. The veteran scorer is trending toward a playmaking slump, recording just four or fewer assists in three of his past four outings. While DeRozan remains a reliable mid-range scorer and isolation threat, his role in Charlotte's offense continues to center on shot creation rather than floor distribution. The Under 5.5 has hit in 60% of his recent games.
Matchup Analysis: Hornets vs Kings
Sacramento's defense ranks 11th in opponent assists per game, not a particularly weak target for ball handlers. More importantly, the Kings' uptempo pace should limit possession counts and reduce opportunities for DeRozan to rack up dimes. Charlotte enters as a 4-point underdog, which typically correlates with lower assist totals for non-primary facilitators. DeRozan's DFS value is capped when his assist opportunities dry up in faster-paced games.
Our DeRozan Assists Prop Pick for March 24
Under 5.5 Assists (-172) is our recommended play. DeRozan's recent four-assist average, combined with Sacramento's pace and Charlotte's underdog status, makes this a high-probability under. The sharp -172 odds reflect the public's awareness that the Hornets guard rarely threatens this line in recent weeks. This DeMar DeRozan prop prediction offers solid value for bettors on Kalshi and traditional sportsbooks alike.
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