Davis Fogle Points Prediction: Over 10.5 vs Texas Longhorns (March 21)
Davis Fogle's points prop is a sharp play on March 21 when Gonzaga takes on Texas in this NCAA tournament matchup. The Bulldogs' forward has been a consistent scoring threat down the stretch, and our model projects him to clear his 10.5-point line against the Longhorns' defense. Here's why we're backing the Over.
Davis Fogle Stats & Recent Form
Fogle has been a steady contributor for Gonzaga's offense over his last five games, averaging 11.8 points on solid efficiency. The forward has hit double figures in three of his last four contests, including a 14-point performance in Gonzaga's conference tournament run. He's shown improved aggression attacking the basket down the stretch of the season, and his shot selection has tightened as the Bulldogs prepare for tournament play.
Matchup Analysis: Gonzaga vs Texas
Texas allows 67.2 points per game and ranks 89th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Longhorns' interior defense has been vulnerable to versatile forwards who can score in multiple ways, which plays directly into Fogle's strengths. Gonzaga figures to control tempo and pace, creating plenty of offensive opportunities for role players like Fogle to operate in rhythm.
Our Fogle Points Prop Pick for March 21
OVER 10.5 Points (-118) is our pick. Fogle's consistency, Texas's defensive profile, and Gonzaga's offensive flow in tournament play all align for a comfortable clear of this line. We expect the Bulldogs to establish their inside game early, and Fogle should see enough touches to reach double digits.
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