Darrion Williams Points Prediction: Under 13.5 vs NC State (March 18)
Darrion Williams' points prop is a contrarian opportunity on the Texas-NC State slate for March 18. The Texas Longhorns guard faces a tough defensive matchup against NC State, and our model projects Williams to fall short of his 13.5-point line. Here's why we're backing the Under.
Darrion Williams Stats & Recent Form
Williams has averaged 11.8 points per game over his last five contests, showing inconsistency in scoring volume. The Texas guard has struggled to get into double figures in three of his last four games, with a season shooting percentage that sits below 40% from the field. His usage rate has declined in recent weeks as Texas has featured other offensive weapons, and he's yet to reach 14 points in any of his last six outings against ranked opponents.
Matchup Analysis: Texas vs NC State
NC State's defense ranks 18th nationally in points allowed per game and excels at limiting perimeter scoring—exactly where Williams operates. The Wolfpack's defensive intensity in tournament play typically ramps up, and they've held opposing guards to 38% shooting in their last three games. Texas enters this matchup as a slight favorite, which typically means Williams won't see the volume needed to push over 13.5 points.
Our Williams Points Prop Pick for March 18
We're backing the Under 13.5 points for Darrion Williams against NC State. His recent scoring trends, combined with NC State's stingy perimeter defense and tournament-level intensity, make it likely Williams stays contained. At -115 odds, the value is sharp on the Under, and we expect the Texas guard to struggle to reach double figures in this high-pressure environment.
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