Connor Murphy Props & Best Bets Today

Connor Murphy's assist line is overpriced at -445, and the books are hoping casual bettors don't realize how little involvement this defenseman has in Edmonton's offensive flow. Murphy's getting traction as a secondary option on the power play, but against Anaheim's middle-of-the-pack penalty kill, he's not going to generate enough volume to cash the over consistently. This is a fade spot, plain and simple.

The Matchup: Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks

Edmonton enters this one as a heavy favorite, which means they'll control possession and generate chances, but Murphy's defensive depth pairing limits his ice time in high-leverage situations. The Ducks rank 22nd in penalty kill efficiency, which sounds good for Edmonton's power play, but Murphy's role on the second unit means he's not seeing the zone entries and touch opportunities that a first-pairing guy would get. Anaheim's penalty kill has actually tightened up recently, holding opponents to just 2-for-20 on the road in their last five games. The Oilers will likely lean on their elite forwards for primary assist opportunities, leaving Murphy as a pass-option guy who rarely gets credited.

Assists: 0.5 (Over 310 / Under -445)

Murphy has logged exactly one assist in his last seven games, and that's the kind of consistency you need to respect when the under is paying -445. The minus price tells you the books are confident in the under, which is rare at this odds level, and they're usually right when they're this sharp. Yes, the Oilers are a favored team getting up-ice pressure, but Murphy's secondary role on the second pairing and second power-play unit means his touch opportunities are limited to offensive-zone entries and the occasional secondary option. Against Anaheim, even in a matchup where Edmonton should dominate, Murphy's expected assists are closer to 0.2 than 0.5. The public sees "Oilers favored" and thinks "defenseman on a good team = assists," but that's lazy thinking. Murphy's assist rate is 0.14 per game over his last 15 contests. Pick: Under 0.5 (-445)

Points: 0.5 (Over 260 / Under -360)

The points line is basically an extension of the assist play, because Murphy's scoring upside is tied entirely to power-play secondary assists or rare even-strength helper opportunities. Over his last 12 games, Murphy has zero goals and one assist, which is a 0.08 points-per-game pace. The over at +260 is tempting bettors into thinking there's value, but that's a trap line designed to sucker action on a defenseman who doesn't drive offense. Anaheim's penalty kill struggles are real, but Edmonton's top power-play unit centers around Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl creating, not depth defensemen getting touches. Murphy's deployment suggests he's seeing limited power-play reps compared to the marquee names. Even in a game where the Oilers should win handily and spend time in the offensive zone, the probability of Murphy recording a goal or getting his name on two assists is well below the implied 50-50 proposition. The under is cashing in 87% of his recent games. Pick: Under 0.5 (-360)

🔒 Best Bet Tonight

Lock in the Under 0.5 Assists at -445. This is where the real edge is. Murphy's assist rate is a statistical fact - 0.14 per game over his last 15 - and that's not changing against a Ducks team that's actually tightened up their road penalty kill. The -445 price is sharp, and the public is going to chase the overs because they see Edmonton as a juggernaut. But depth defensemen on loaded teams don't generate assist volume the way people think. Murphy's got one assist in seven games. He's not getting two tonight. Hammer the under.