Collin Sexton Threes Prediction: Over 1.5 vs Cavaliers — March 20 NBA Pick

Collin Sexton Threes Prediction: Over 1.5 vs Cavaliers — March 20 NBA Pick

Collin Sexton - NBA

Collin Sexton's threes prop is a sharp play on Friday night's NBA slate. The Chicago Bulls guard faces his former team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, on March 20, and our model projects Sexton to comfortably exceed his 1.5 threes line. Here's why we're backing the Over.

Collin Sexton Stats & Recent Form

Sexton has been in a hot shooting stretch over his last five games, averaging 2.2 made threes per contest with a 38% clip from deep. The 26-year-old has quietly become a reliable three-point threat for Chicago, particularly in games where the Bulls need extended floor spacing. His recent uptick in volume and efficiency suggests the line is underpriced, especially against a Cavaliers defense that ranks 18th in three-point defense efficiency this season.

Matchup Analysis: Chicago Bulls vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland's perimeter defense has been inconsistent, giving up 36% three-point shooting to opposing guards over the last 10 games. The Cavaliers' moderate pace (102 possessions per game) should give Sexton plenty of opportunities in transition and off the bench. Additionally, facing his former team typically adds an extra layer of motivation for Sexton, who has historically elevated his scoring output in revenge games.

Our Sexton Threes Prop Pick for March 20

We're backing the Over 1.5 Threes at -125. Sexton's recent three-point volume and accuracy, combined with Cleveland's permeable perimeter defense, make this a strong value play. Look for him to drain at least two threes in this matchup. Our Collin Sexton prop prediction model gives this Over a 58% hit rate, and it's a solid DFS building block if you're constructing lineups for Friday's slate.

PROP ODDS NBA • March 20, 2026
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Collin Sexton — Threes 1.5
Over 1.5 -125   52%
Under 1.5 -106   48%
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