Braden Smith Assists Prediction: Under 10.5 vs Queens University (March 20)
Braden Smith's assists prop is a prime Under play on tonight's NCAA tournament slate. The Purdue Boilermakers point guard faces Queens University on March 20, and our model projects Smith to fall short of his 10.5-assist line. Here's why we're backing the Under.
Braden Smith Stats & Recent Form
Smith has averaged 8.2 assists per game over his last five contests, hitting the 10.5-assist mark just twice in that span. The Purdue star's assist volume fluctuates heavily depending on matchup pace and offensive rhythm, but he's been more of a facilitator than a distributor in recent weeks. His turnover rate has also ticked up, forcing him to be more selective with his passes in high-leverage situations.
Matchup Analysis: Purdue vs Queens University
Queens University plays a deliberate, half-court style that will slow the game's pace significantly. Purdue's prop prediction becomes clearer when accounting for this defensive approach—fewer possessions mean fewer opportunities for assists. Additionally, the Royals rank among tournament teams in perimeter pressure, which should disrupt Smith's typical rhythm and force more quick decisions that don't result in dimes.
Our Smith Assists Prop Pick for March 20
We're backing the Under 10.5 assists for Braden Smith tonight. With Queens' methodical pace, defensive intensity, and Purdue's likely offensive adjustments in tournament play, Smith should see diminished assist opportunities. The Boilermakers will rely more on individual scoring, and this matchup's structure simply doesn't favor high assist totals. This is a sharp Under for Kalshi Braden Smith prop bets and DFS considerations alike.
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