Anthony Edwards Assists Prediction: Under 4.5 vs Thunder (March 15)

Anthony Edwards' assists prop is a sharp Under play on tonight's NBA slate. The Minnesota Timberwolves face the Oklahoma City Thunder on March 15, and our model projects Edwards to fall short of his 4.5-assist line. Here's why we're backing the Under.

Anthony Edwards Stats & Recent Form

Edwards has averaged 3.8 assists over his last five games, showing consistent difficulty in reaching the 4.5 threshold. The dynamic wing scorer is averaging 24.2 points during this stretch but has touched 5 or more assists in just one of his last seven outings. His role remains firmly focused on volume scoring rather than playmaking, a reality reflected in his season-long 3.9 assists per game average. When the Timberwolves need buckets, Edwards gets his shots—not his dimes.

Matchup Analysis: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City ranks 8th in the league in defensive efficiency and has held opposing wings to just 4.1 assists per game this season. The Thunder's switching and rim protection make it harder for non-primary ball handlers to generate offensive opportunities. Minnesota's depth at guard—with both Mike Conley and Spencer and Jaden McDaniels capable of handling playmaking duties—means Edwards doesn't shoulder heavy passing responsibilities in this system.

Our Edwards Assists Prop Pick for March 15

UNDER 4.5 Assists (-152)
Edwards' role as a complementary scorer to Anthony-Maddox and the Timberwolves' guard-heavy offensive scheme makes this a clear Under. He's consistently failed to reach 5 assists in recent games, and tonight's matchup against a top-10 defensive unit reinforces the thesis. Lock in the Under on this Anthony Edwards prop prediction.